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In order to understand the chances of your application being funded, it is helpful to understand the relationship between the impact score of the application, its percentile ranking, the concept of a payline, and the process by which funding decisions are made.
Impact Score
It all starts with the impact. The impact score is assigned by scientific peer reviewers to indicate the scientific and technical merit of an application. Impact scores range between 1 and 9. A score of “1” indicates an exceptionally strong application and “9” indicates an application with substantial weakness.
Percentile Rank
For many applications NIH converts impact scores into a percentile that ranks an application relative to other applications reviewed in the same scientific review committee in the current and the preceding two review rounds. This kind of ranking permits comparison across scientific review committees that may have different scoring behaviors. An application that was ranked in the 5th percentile is considered more meritorious than 95% of the applications reviewed by that committee.
Not all applications are percentiled. In the absence of a percentile rank, the impact score is used as a direct indicator of the scientific review committee's assessment.
Payline
A payline is the priority score or percentile through which most applications will be paid. They are a conservative funding cutoff point.
Many NIH Institutes and Centers (ICs) identify a percentile score that serves as a payline, beyond which most applications will not be funded. When setting paylines, ICs consider the funds they have available, out-year commitments to existing multi-year awards, anticipated funding for new and established programs, and predicted trends in grant applications. Set after the budget is determined, paylines are not mandatory, are not made for all activity codes, and may be adjusted during the year.
Under justified circumstances, an NIH institute or center may fund applications with scores outside of the payline, while other applications with scores within the payline may not be funded. These funding decisions are based on deliberate considerations of budgets, available funds, research priorities, and the wider research portfolio.
How Funding Decisions Are Made
NIH IC Directors decide which applications to fund based on peer review scores, Council recommendations, research portfolio balance, unmet scientific opportunities, emerging public health needs, as well as considering training, workforce, and infrastructure.
Success Rates
NIH publishes success rates that provide higher level insights into the likelihood an application will be funded. Success rates are calculated by dividing the number of awards made in a fiscal year by the number of applications received. Applications having one or more resubmissions in the same fiscal year are only counted once. Explore NIH success rates or learn how success rates are calculated.