NIH GUIDE, Volume 24, Number 17, May 12, 1995




National Cancer Institute

The National Cancer Institute (NCI), Division of Cancer Prevention

and Control (DCPC), Applied Research Branch, is soliciting proposals

for the Microsimulation Model for Colorectal Cancer Screening.  This

project is to develop a computer-based simulation model which will be

a useful aid in the systematic evaluation of evidence, from

randomized controlled trials and other sources, on the efficacy and

effectiveness of various approaches to colon cancer screening.  The

model will also be a useful tool for conducting prospective

cost-effectiveness analysis of various proposals for implementing

colon cancer screening on a mass population-based level.  This model

is to be produced by modifying an existing micro-simulation model

designed to address issues of cancer screening.  Micro-simulation

models use Monte Carlo statistical methods to model the cost and

effectiveness of the disease and the technical characteristics of the

screening technology.  A large number of hypothetical "life

histories"  for an un-screened and a corresponding screened

population are simulated.  Each life history is randomly assigned,

but the overall distribution of these histories is determined by a

statistical model of the natural history of the cancer under study,

the technical characteristics of the screening technology being

investigated and the demographic characteristics of the population

being screened.  The following tasks will be necessary:  (1)

Substantial new programming work will have to be done to address the

complex issues in colorectal cancer screening; (2) The initial values

of model parameters (including distributional specifications) need to

be developed; (3) Exploratory calculations will be performed with the

initial version of the model.  Extensive sensitivity analysis will be

performed to identify the parameters that are most crucial in

determining the cost-effectiveness results for the various tests; (4)

Continued and more refined analysis of key natural history and

screening test parameters will be conducted by using the model to

simulate existing RCT, case-control and other screening studies; AND

(5) The end objective of the project is to have a functional

quantitative model that will describe those aspects of the colorectal

cancer screening that are currently believed to be important and

produce estimates of effectiveness and cost effectiveness of various

screening policies and programs.


Requests for this solicitation must be in writing and reference RFP

No. NCI-CN-55104-63.  This Request for Proposal (RFP) will be

available approximately May 17, 1995 and proposals will be due

approximately June 19, 1995.  Requests are to be addressed to:

Ms. Tina Huyck

Research Contracts Branch

National Cancer Institute

6120 Executive Boulevard  MSC 7226

Bethesda  MD  20892-7226

Telephone:  (301) 496-8603


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